Hillary Wins a Landslide... of Coin Tosses

Like many political junkies, I was glued to Twitter and @TheYoungTurks's live coverage of the Iowa caucus last night - deep into the early hours of the morning. I'm an unapologetic Bernie Sanders supporter. While I do not dislike Hillary, I think Bernie has proven he has the intuition, capacity for forward-thinking, and intellect that transcends Hillary Clinton's capabilities.

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton were overwhelmingly
civil during the first Democratic Debate, Oct. 13, 2015

Some examples? Hillary supported the Iraq War when Bernie knew from the beginning it was a shoddy idea. Bernie has supported civil liberties such as same-sex marriage long before it was politically expedient to do so. Long before Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama jumped on the 'I guess it's okay' bandwagon a few years ago. And of course - Hillary Clinton is bought. She works for her donors and thus her policies will pander to them. But so is just about every other Washington politician.

The entire night, Bernie and Hillary were in a dead heat with one another. Hillary had a strong early start, but hour by hour, Bernie inched closer and closer- coming within 0.2 of overtaking her. What resulted was essentially a tie between the former Secretary of State and the Senator from Vermont, with Hillary maintaining hold of a very, very slight lead. 

Iowa was supposed to be a strong state for Bernie Sanders, being so close to New Hampshire and Vermont, so a tie is not a terribly favourable result for those of us who #FeeltheBern. However, when put in perspective, what Senator Sanders has done is nothing short of remarkable. Just a few months ago, Bernie Sanders had very little name recognition outside of Vermont. He does not have a Super-PAC and relies on individual donors who give what they can. Hillary is just the opposite; she was the First Lady for eight years and the Secretary of State for President Obama for four. She makes more money in a ten-minute speaking engagement than most people will see in a year. She was the favourite to win, and months ago she was expected to win by a landslide.

She tied Bernie Sanders. And shockingly enough - six precincts were so close they were decided by a coin toss, all of which just happened to result in her favour. The odds of all six coin tosses going in Hillary's favour is around 1.34 per cent. It's a statistical improbability, but it looks like Hillary had an incredible stroke of luck on her side last night.

See the video to the right. Democracy at its finest right there. Although, I wouldn't lie to you - had they gone Bernie's way, I'd probably be thrilled. No one can tell for sure yet if a more favourable Sanders outcome in the coin flips would have resulted in a win in Iowa for Sanders, but it certainly does matter.

She only needs to win 30 coin tosses to win New Hampshire.